Housing Market Major Problem Options

[The Editor]

Check out this link, this is what happens in a bubble, people borrow 100%+ of the house value. Thats the stupidest thing ever. Can you say foreclosure?

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/...883748>1=6657

San Diego appears to be the worst in terms of housing debt and froth. For some reason that doesn't surprise me. Be aware.

San Francisco and Oakland are in the top-5. Is it possible that home values will be cut in half? I think it is. Watch.

[The Editor]

In the meanwhile homebuilding stocks continue to bubble. KB HOMES!

Fool, come on now.

[The Editor]

Here's a good article:

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/8538619/

[The Editor]

I hate to toot my own horn, but I've been calling this housing bust since everyone was all Nasdaq1999 on it.

Notice, this post was started in June of 2005 and check out when Toll Brothers' stock topped and what has happened since:

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/in...%2Fintchart.asp

Steppin it up.

[savathlete]

You da man! Lookin at the world through your rear-view!

[The Editor]

Be prepared for continuing bad news in terms of real estate:

http://safehaven.com/article-6255.htm

[Sonora Joe Milo]

And here's some more of that news:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/06/business...ess&oref=slogin

[The Editor]

This is a legitimate threat to the global economy. The easy money policies of the past five years, spearheaded by Greenspan and Co. and pushed by mortgage brokers and banks the nation over, not to mention the media, academia, the mainstream financial press and countless other sleaze balls and general fools, has led to a situation of malinvestment that threatens to shake up the entire globe and lead to a worldwide readjustment in wealth and general mood that could be historic in its scope. This is a serious matter that has been ignored, and denied, for a period of time that bodes seriously ill for innumerable individuals.

Success will only come to those who recognize, analyze and react and are not in a severe state of denial about the reality of our situation.

The next 20 years will not be for the faint of heart and poodle of will.

Step Up Game!

[HNIC]

what can we do to make sure we are ok?

[The Editor]

I would advise a few basic things:

- Educate yourself on the possibilities. The best single resource in book form for financial awareness is Conquer the Crash by Robert Prechter. You can find that at any major bookstore.

- Don't listen to the mainstream hype machine and buy into financial products with leverage. Stay away from owning a home until you can secure a moderate down payment. Never buy a home with an interest-only loan, especially not now.

- Talk with friends and family and let them know about the possibilities. The more who are aware of the possibilities and causes of the issues, the better.

- Demand restraint and sanity on the part of government bodies. It is not time for a spending spree, a massive aggressive war, curtailing of the free market or other restrictions on liberties. Government needs to be restrained.

- If possible maintain a nice cushion of liquid reserves of both cash and some precious metals. Don't assume your bank has YOUR cash on hand. Keep some cash reserves and metals. Possibly secure some foreign currency as a hedge to US$ weakness. The US$ may be your best bet for a time, however. Don't hesitate to gradually accumulate moderate gold holdings if you can. Try to buy on price weakness in the gold market.

- If you have larger cash holdings get into medium-term treasury funds through safe conduits. Buy a book on Weiss Ratings and look up safe banks.

- Keep working hard and thinking about possible avenues of production.

- Keep thinking.

- Enjoy life.

[HNIC]

whats your forecast on the precious metals market for the near future?

[The Editor]

It's a real tough call right now as far as the short term. I think that the easier call to make is that over the longer haul, gold and other precious metals will steadily gain in value and recognition in relation to traditional fiat currencies. Just looking at the structural US deficits and the amount of debt in our system makes that appear to be a no-brainer.

I'd say if you gradually ease in to precious metals as some of your savings it would be a quality move.

[The Editor]

Here's another article pointing out real life examples of exactly what we were calling for (aggressive borrowers being trapped by being "in over their heads" and now being "underwater" due to their home loans). Bad situation.

http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money...cle_1381194.php

[Sonora Joe Milo]

An interesting side affect of the housing slump


Metro housing slide keeps repo man busy
'Snowball effect' from mortgage woes, easy credit keeps lot overflowing

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/busine.../repo_0904.html

[Sonora Joe Milo]

It is strange to look at the dates in this thread and see how amazing the predictions are now that we can look at them in retrospect. I've just gotten into the landlord business by buying a foreclosure in Contra Costa County. This particular house was built in 1991 and sold for around $180,000 new back then. It has some unpermitted work done on it and a building department lien that made it very difficult to get a loan on it in this market. So I got a steal on it using my own home equity and buying it for cash. After I pay for the required work, it will still have cost me less than its original sale price in 1991. The same floor plan in this neighborhood sold for a little over $600,000 at the peak less than 3 years ago when the editor was warning about an impending collapse. Now Contra Costa County is the land of foreclosures with prices having declined over 70% in some cases and over 65% in nearly all cases off the peak. Cash is King right now, and my 18 year old house cost me less than $90 per square foot because I had cash. Thank you for your consistent logical informative opinions and research. They helped confirm my own guesses about housing which I started to doubt occasionally. When prices kept going well above what I thought was possible, I sometimes wondered if we were going to head straight into a hyperinflation to keep the banks solvent as opposed to a housing collapse that would destroy the banks. Both outcomes are bad for our society, but I was set up a little better to take advantage of this outcome and hopefully will find success as a landlord as this economy stumbles along to who knows where. You deserve an award for your brilliant predictions, so I officially award the editor the "Smarter Than Washington's Finest" Award. Obviously you are smarter than the Fed chairman and Treasury secretary, and I am not just saying that, I believe it. I have been around long enough and paid enough close attention to politics to know that most of the people in charge of our government are dangerously stupid and are there because of their political skill, not because they know anything. Most people have a faith and trust that presidents and congress put reasonably competent people in charge of important departments and committees. Unfortunately and sadly it is so rare that it is almost an accident that really sharp and ethical people end up running important things in Washington. And that is why we are where we are today.

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