(Apologies to readers for this being published late, we have been encountering some technical difficulties here at PT)
The Conference Finals are upon us, and the defending champs are surprisingly nowhere to be found. While we all knew the Celtics weren’t at full strength, with star low-post presence and team leader Kevin Garnett out with injury, I still expected them to be in the hunt to defend their crown for at least one more series.
It was not to be, however. For the first time in franchise history, the Celtics blew a 3-2 series lead. To make matters worse, they had the lead going into the fourth quarter in Game six. When they lost that game, I half-seriously figured they were simply trying to play as many games possible, as they did last year and that there was no way they would lose the series finale. I figured, no matter how many guys are hurt, defending champions aren’t supposed to lose game sevens on their home court. But come up short they did, and in the process, Orlando showed that they are a legit contender who should be taken very seriously.
The other remaining team in the East is led by a guy who is playing some of the best roundball ever played. He’s making it look too easy, but that’s in part because the Cavs have not faced a formidable foe yet. I thought the Hawks would put up a fight but, to put it in Madden terminology, the Hawks were playing on rookie, while the Cavs were on All-Madden.
The Nuggets are playing similarly to the Cavs. They’ve lost only two games in these playoffs and by a grand total of three points. They are peaking at the right time as Carmelo Anthony is quietly ascending to Superstar status in his own right. If he has the ball, he can score like Kobe and LeBron. He just doesn’t get the pub like those two do.
The Lakers were Jekyll and Hyde in their second round set. They looked like an unstoppable team in some games and a lottery bound team in others. They showed they can be as dominant as they want to be, but that was only when they had something to prove after embarrassing losses. They overlooked the injury plagued Rockets, and that almost cost them the series. They’ll definitely need to regain their focus if they plan on getting past the hard charging Nuggets.
Western Conference Finals
#1 Lakers vs. #2 Nuggets
Over the past seven years, there’s been one constant in the NBA version of the Final Four: Chauncey Billups. I don’t know the exact stats on this, but I’m assuming that’s a record in modern day basketball.
Chauncey, along with Carmelo Anthony, has the Nuggets looking like they should be the favorite in this series. But over the past 12 games against the Lakers they are 1-11. While Chauncey wasn’t there for the first nine of those games, I don’t think that record can be ignored. Plus, in the Lakers three wins this year, they won by double digits every time.
I think the Lakers know what they’re dealing with in this round and I fully expect them to be prepared. I’m not ignoring what the Nuggets have done, but only defensive oriented teams give the Lakers problems, and while the Nuggets have improved in that aspect, they are not a defensive team. The Nuggets will have to put up a lot of points to get past the Lakers. They are definitely capable, but they don’t have the defenders to win this series.
As far as matchups go, Nene and Bynum will cancel each other out, Lamar and Pau will work Kenyon Martin like last year, and no one will be able to stop Kobe Bryant. Also, Derek Fisher can’t play any worse than he did last round. Chauncey Billups is far superior than what D-Fish had to deal with last round, but he doesn’t have the speed that Aaron Brooks had, which gave Fisher problems. Expect a far less lopsided matchup at point guard in this series.
Carmelo has the advantage over Trevor Ariza, but it won’t be that lopsided either. Ariza is a solid defender and has been hitting threes consistently. A positive for the Nuggets is that their bench is playing a whole lot better than the Lakers bench. They play with a lot more energy and have JR Smith, who can get hot at any time. But I think that will only help the Nuggets win a few games. The Lakers will not have two straight bad series.
Lakers in six.
Eastern Conference Finals
#1 Cavaliers vs. #3 Magic
The Cavs have swept through the first two rounds, winning by double digits in each game. But the Magic will be their first true test of these playoffs.
The Magic won the season series 2-1, with the Cavs’ only win coming from a big fourth quarter rally. And the last time these teams met on April 3rd, Orlando embarrassed the Cavs by 29. Thus the Cavs definitely have something to prove in this round. They’ve been on cruise control for four weeks, so we’ll see what they’re truly made of in this one.
In the Celtics series, Dwight Howard wasn’t as dominant as he should have been. Once he called out his coach, his play improved, but he still has to command the ball if he wants the touches. Zydrunas Ilgauskas shouldn’t be a problem at all when he’s guarding him, but Dwight has to have monster games to get Orlando to the finals.
A bigger key to Orlando’s success will be their outside shooting. Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu have to be consistent to beat the Cavs. And with LeBron defending Hedo, he’s not going to have an easy time.
Rafer Alston has to do a good job of keeping Mo Williams busy on the defensive side of the ball. Williams hasn’t faced an offensive threat in the playoffs, which allowed him to hang out on the three-point line for two series. In the two games they played against each other this season, they’ve pretty much canceled each other production-wise. On the Cavs side of things, we all know what LeBron James brings to the table. You can expect to see the same crazy stats from him. The key for the Cavs is shooting the ball as well. If Big Z can hit jumpers, Dwight Howard will have to come out and guard him, thus opening lanes for his teammates. And if Williams, Wally Szcerbiak, and Delonte West stay hot, the Cavs could run away with this series. But I don’t think anyone runs away with this series. As much as I’d love to see an Adam Morrison-JJ Redick NBA Finals, I don’t think it’ll happen.
The Magic will put up a fight, but in the end, the Cavs are just playing too well. It won’t be an easy series for the Cavs, as I expect them to be in a lot of close games. But in the end, they’ll come out on top.
Cavs in six.
I will have my preview for the potentially eminent Kobe-LeBron Finals next time. Until then getaklew and Ponder This…
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